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1.
Nature ; 624(7992): 586-592, 2023 Dec.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38030732

RESUMO

A long-standing expectation is that large, dense and cosmopolitan areas support socioeconomic mixing and exposure among diverse individuals1-6. Assessing this hypothesis has been difficult because previous measures of socioeconomic mixing have relied on static residential housing data rather than real-life exposures among people at work, in places of leisure and in home neighbourhoods7,8. Here we develop a measure of exposure segregation that captures the socioeconomic diversity of these everyday encounters. Using mobile phone mobility data to represent 1.6 billion real-world exposures among 9.6 million people in the United States, we measure exposure segregation across 382 metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs) and 2,829 counties. We find that exposure segregation is 67% higher in the ten largest MSAs than in small MSAs with fewer than 100,000 residents. This means that, contrary to expectations, residents of large cosmopolitan areas have less exposure to a socioeconomically diverse range of individuals. Second, we find that the increased socioeconomic segregation in large cities arises because they offer a greater choice of differentiated spaces targeted to specific socioeconomic groups. Third, we find that this segregation-increasing effect is countered when a city's hubs (such as shopping centres) are positioned to bridge diverse neighbourhoods and therefore attract people of all socioeconomic statuses. Our findings challenge a long-standing conjecture in human geography and highlight how urban design can both prevent and facilitate encounters among diverse individuals.


Assuntos
Cidades , Análise de Rede Social , Rede Social , Fatores Socioeconômicos , População Urbana , Humanos , Telefone Celular , Cidades/estatística & dados numéricos , Habitação/estatística & dados numéricos , Modelos Teóricos , Características de Residência/estatística & dados numéricos , Estados Unidos , População Urbana/estatística & dados numéricos
2.
Nature ; 589(7840): 82-87, 2021 01.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33171481

RESUMO

The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic markedly changed human mobility patterns, necessitating epidemiological models that can capture the effects of these changes in mobility on the spread of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2)1. Here we introduce a metapopulation susceptible-exposed-infectious-removed (SEIR) model that integrates fine-grained, dynamic mobility networks to simulate the spread of SARS-CoV-2 in ten of the largest US metropolitan areas. Our mobility networks are derived from mobile phone data and map the hourly movements of 98 million people from neighbourhoods (or census block groups) to points of interest such as restaurants and religious establishments, connecting 56,945 census block groups to 552,758 points of interest with 5.4 billion hourly edges. We show that by integrating these networks, a relatively simple SEIR model can accurately fit the real case trajectory, despite substantial changes in the behaviour of the population over time. Our model predicts that a small minority of 'superspreader' points of interest account for a large majority of the infections, and that restricting the maximum occupancy at each point of interest is more effective than uniformly reducing mobility. Our model also correctly predicts higher infection rates among disadvantaged racial and socioeconomic groups2-8 solely as the result of differences in mobility: we find that disadvantaged groups have not been able to reduce their mobility as sharply, and that the points of interest that they visit are more crowded and are therefore associated with higher risk. By capturing who is infected at which locations, our model supports detailed analyses that can inform more-effective and equitable policy responses to COVID-19.


Assuntos
COVID-19/epidemiologia , COVID-19/prevenção & controle , Simulação por Computador , Locomoção , Distanciamento Físico , Grupos Raciais/estatística & dados numéricos , Fatores Socioeconômicos , COVID-19/transmissão , Telefone Celular/estatística & dados numéricos , Análise de Dados , Humanos , Aplicativos Móveis/estatística & dados numéricos , Religião , Restaurantes/organização & administração , Medição de Risco , Fatores de Tempo
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